Sepp Straka has finished eighth and 11th in his two starts here and was 10th last week at the Travelers where he finished fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach. For a much-heralded former phenom who finished runner-up to Charles Howell III in a playoff three years ago, it might take a big week against a lesser field to propel him back into the public consciousness. In the top-30 on the list of driving distance leaders this season, I expect that length to help him this week.
Pictured: Patrick Rodgers Longshots Jason Sobel Your job is to multiply the investment for the payday. It paid off with Jon Rahm as the favorite at the U.S. This field is not great by any stretch, so getting 30/1 on a two-time winner seems like fantastic value. Kokrak lost strokes putting that week, something that’s unlikely to happen again this week. 1 in SG: Putting (over his past 48 rounds.) The Ohio native also gained over two strokes per round tee-to-green on the field the last time he played this event back in 2019, where he finished T-29. He ranks 13th on TOUR in par-five scoring (a critical statistic this week), 23rd in driving distance and No. Instead, we’ll look towards the only other two-time TOUR winner on the year teeing it up this week, Jason Kokrak.įew things need to be said at this point. įull disclosure I do believe Bryson DeChambeau is the most logical choice to win this week, however, he is about 7/1 at most sports books, making it difficult to back him considering how variant golf tournaments can be. With his distance off the tee combined with the wide open layout I don’t anticipate around the green play being a major factor this week.Īll signs point to Joaquin Niemann having a great chance to earn his second PGA TOUR victory at The Rocket Mortgage Classic. The green in regulation percentage at Detroit Golf Club is about 8% higher than the average PGA TOUR event. Niemann’s biggest detractor of late has been his concerning around the green play. With four par 5’s at Detroit Golf Club and his power, he should be able to take real advantage of the birdie and eagle opportunities. Niemann also ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Par 5. The wide open layout this week will allow the 22-year-old Chilean to let it rip off of the tee and should have easy approach shots into the green. He is extremely long off the tee and gained 14.7 strokes on the field at The Travelers Championship in Driving Distance: Gained. Niemann ranks no worse than 22nd in the field in all five of my most important statistical categories this week. That changes this week.ĭetroit Golf Club is the perfect setup for “The Wonder Kid”. I strongly believe that Joaquin Niemann is going to start to pile up wins on the PGA TOUR, but I haven’t backed him in a long while because I didn’t love the course fits for him. I’m not overthinking it this week, and simply putting most of my eggs in the DeChambeau basket. He will look to do that again this week, and if he has his typically strong putter once again, it will be curtains for the rest of this fairly weak field.
The course at Detroit Golf Club sets up really perfectly for Bryson as there are easy to hit fairways, but also little danger around the course to prevent him from swinging out of his shoes on every hole. Only one player, the prior version of Matthew Wolff, was able to hang with Bryson for most of the week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2020, and even then he fell short by three strokes. There is a very apparent path to him simply running away with this event, and not looking back. This feels like one of those weeks where we get to the end, and wonder why we gave any consideration to anyone outside of the top man on the board, Bryson DeChambeau. He was above the field average with both ball-striking categories and putting in a stronger field than this one. He’s coming off a missed cut last week at the Travelers, but that was because he lost nearly four strokes around the green.
Garrick Higgo has already shown he can take down one of these weaker field events, and he’s also capable of going super low as we saw during his run in Europe.
The truth is, I’ll usually only list a favorite as my fave outright maybe once or twice each year, but this feels like another smart situation to chase a short number.Ĭall this one the Occam’s Razor play – sometimes the simplest solution is the best solution. Open – during which pre-tourney favorite Jon Rahm won, of course – I joked in a column that this is why we should always hammer the favorite.
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